CLEVELAND — The Biden administration and the U.S. EPA detailed aggressive and ambitious emissions standards on Wednesday that would require more than two-thirds of new vehicles sold in the U.S. to be electric by 2032. The lofty goals represent a nearly tenfold increase over the current market share of EVs.
The proposed regulations would apply to vehicles with model years 2027 through 2032 and represent the most stringent emissions standards in US history. Although the proposed regulations do not explicitly require new vehicles to be fully electric, automakers would more than likely have to greatly ramp up adoption of EV technology in order to meet the new mandates.
Used vehicles would not be affected.
Depending on how automakers choose to comply with the proposed regulations, the EPA anticipates that at least 60% of all new passenger vehicles sold in the US would be electric by 2030. By 2032, that number would increase to 67%. Although the proposal will likely be met with opposition or criticism by some automakers and is subject to a lengthy public comment period, many industry experts expect the rule to become final by 2024.
“One of the legal requirements for [the Biden administration] to propose this is that it be feasible,” said Victor Flatt, a distinguished visiting fellow and visiting professor of environmental law at Case Western Reserve University. “It can’t be something they just pick out of thin air and make up. It has to be something that can be met by the industry without shutting the industry down that will not raise costs to consumers.”
Some automakers have publicly drawn attention to the challenge before them: a quicker-than-expected wind down of gasoline-powered vehicle production while simultaneously quickly ramping up production of electric vehicles. Currently, the percentage of EV sales, although consistently growing, is around 7%. However, American automakers have already made or announced large-scale investments in the EV production process. The Inflation Reduction Act passed by Congress in 2022 also provided incentives and funding for EV production and infrastructure, including the construction of additional EV charging stations.
“The car manufacturers themselves have really started to re-tool. This goes hand-in-hand with some of the money that is available in the Inflation Reduction Act. That money bolsters the argument that this is feasible,” Flatt said. “I think everybody is realizing that this is where the entire industry is heading.”
When coupled with the regulatory “teeth” in the proposal, Flatt said the ‘carrot-and-stick’ approach taken by the Biden administration should make it feasible for automakers to comply with the aggressive timeline. Currently, only one automaker could meet the proposal as written: Tesla.
“This is almost a revolutionary car — almost like when the Model A came out 100 years ago,” said John Cassity, a Tesla Model 3 owner. “This is going to change the way we look at cars because it’s so efficient with the way it runs.”
Cassity took possession of his Tesla Model 3 about a month ago. As a full-time Uber driver and YouTuber, he routinely logs up to 12,000 miles a month. His previous vehicle, a gasoline-powered Chevy Impala, cost him $1,200 a month on average. His Model 3 only costs $350 a month to charge at any one of Tesla’s charging stations, Cassity said.
“This is a lot cheaper and it will go all day on a charge. I can charge around noon and it will last until midnight on a whole charge, driving all day on and off. It’s very efficient,” Cassity said. “You can get about 200 miles (of charging) in 15 minutes. For the most part, being in Ohio, I never usually have to drive further than 15 minutes for a charging station. It’s almost like gas stations in rural areas or so. They’re convenient enough to find them and you’re never running out of charge.”
Under the Clean Air Act, the federal government has a significant amount of discretion to limit harmful emissions, Fink said. Assuming the proposed regulations pass any sort of legal challenge, the rule is expected to become final next year.
“The new manufacturing that is necessary for electric vehicles — at least some of it — will be adding jobs here [in Ohio],” Flatt said. “The question is whether those added jobs are going to replace the jobs lost in the internal combustion engine division.”
