CLEVELAND — After a spike in 2020, murders have fallen in major U.S. cities. But not in Cleveland.
Murders are up 13.46% so far this year, according to data by AH Datalytics.
Their data also shows murders have decreased by approximately the same percentage in many large U.S. cities, including Akron and Cincinnati.
SEE YOUR CITY: YTD Murder Comparison
Jeff Asher, a former CIA analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics, routinely gathers the murder data from more than 100 U.S. cities.
"We're able to say with some comfort: This is the trend this year," he said.
In fact, data shows the U.S. is currently on track to experience one of the largest drops in homicides since the nation started tracking statistics in the 1960s.
"The most logical explanation is that we've seen the pandemic, and everything that the pandemic had associated with it has sort of faded away," Asher said.
A deadly equation
So what's gone wrong in Cleveland?
Rachel Lovell, Director of the Criminology Research Center at Cleveland State University, said variables in Cleveland can add up to higher homicide rates.
For example, prior to the pandemic, Cleveland already had high rates of violent crime and is often ranked as one of the most dangerous cities in the U.S.
Lovell said it was easier for cities with lower crime rates to recover from what appears to be a pandemic-related spike.
"The problems that Cleveland already had with violent crime, and, in particular, with homicides, were just exacerbated by the pandemic," she said.
Lovell also blamed Ohio's gun laws. She said they make it easy for anyone to access firearms.
"We do know that more access to guns, especially for people who are not legally allowed to possess them, is more likely to lead to deadly consequences and violent crime, like homicide," she said.
"Research has shown for a long period of time now that in states ... that make it more difficult for individuals who shouldn’t have weapons to be able to do that or make it harder for police to confiscate guns from those who should not have or cannot possess weapons that you see that impacting crime in very meaningful ways," she said.
Dangerous variable
Another factor: Cleveland's dwindling police force and its failure to follow experts' recommendations to bolster its homicide unit.
Our ongoing News investigation, "Dangerousy Understaffed," found the city lost 32% of its officers during the pandemic.
READ MORE: Cleveland lost 32% of its police force over the last three years
Lovell said research shows the number of homicides in a city correlates to the number of officers it devotes to finding killers.
Plus, for years, the city has failed to properly staff its homicide unit, despite expert reports advising the city to significantly increase the number of detectives in the unit.
In a January 2020 report, the Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) National Public Safety Partnership (PSP) recommended 38 detectives.
A 2016 report by the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF)) found each detective worked an average of 10 new homicide cases during the year, "which is twice the recommended number according to research on homicide investigation best practices."
As of August 29, there were 17 detectives in the unit, according to Lt. Kevin Mateo.
However, the homicide unit also has three sergeants and the addition of a lieutenant is pending, Mateo wrote in an e-mail to News 5.
He also wrote the unit is supplemented by the following law enforcement agencies:
· 1 BCI agent
· 2 FBI agent
· 1 ATF agent
· 1 FBI analyst
· 1 Investigative research analyst
The current homicide solve rate is at 77% as of August 22, he added.
Mayor Bibb's response
After declining multiple requests for a one-on-one interview, Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb answered questions about how he will address the city's murder rate at a news conference for a Cleveland crime reduction initiative Tuesday.
"We have a lot more work to do," he acknowledged. "But the men and women of our police department are working very hard to keep our city safe."
"We're investing in good quality intelligence to enhance our homicide solve rate," he said. "We also recognize we are in a war for talent to attract and retain new officers. That's why last week I was excited to announce our new investments for new recruits."
After negotiating pay raises for new cadets and additional recruitment initiatives last month, the administration is continuing negotiations with two key police unions on initiatives to increase officer retention.
"We are committed to not sparing any expense to keep our city safe," he said.
Bibb did not specifically answer why he has not increased the number of detectives in the homicide unit, but noted the division of police remains short-staffed.
As of Aug. 23, there were 1,226 sworn law enforcement officers, which is 272 officers below the amount called for in this year's budget. However, Bibb reduced the number of officers in this year's budget. If you consider previous budgets, the city is short more than 400 officers.
When asked what he would tell the families of murder victims who often complain about the lack of communication from police and are waiting for justice, Mayor Bibb said, "We share their frustration. We share their pain."
He later added, "We care. We are with them. I know that our detectives are working as hard as they can to solve these cases. We need more resources. That's why we're partnered with organizations like the ATF, and U.S. Attorney to give us those resources. More help is on the way, but we're going to continue to do what we can with the resources that we have."
Jeff Follmer, President of the Cleveland Police Patrolmen's Association, said the current negotiations are aimed at improving pay for officers and a possible shift to 12-hour days.
Follmer also said staffing for specialized units, like homicide, is not on the table at this time.
Searching for solutions
Experts said adding officers is only one part of the solution.
"It would be great if these agencies lost officers, and now murder is up, go hire some more officers," Asher said. "It's not that simple, unfortunately."
Asher also cautions against drawing the conclusion the receding pandemic has caused homicides to drop so far this year.
For example, crime rates dropped significantly during the 1990s. However, despite decades of study, there is no broad consensus on why the U.S. became safer.
"If I had the mayor's ear, I would say that we need to continue to address this as a public health issue, not just a criminal justice response," Lovell said.
During the pandemic, social services that keep people on the straight and narrow, including schools and workplaces, were suspended or reduced for periods of time.
Lovell recommends adding more support for organizations like the Cleveland Peacemakers Alliance, which uses mediation and other conflict resolution tools to create safer neighborhoods.
"I don’t want to just paint Cleveland as just this terrible place where just everything bad happens, instead, there’s some really great individuals and entities that are doing really great work in the community," she said.
Grief multiplied
As a single mother, Cleveland resident Ayesha Muwakkil said she struggled to find those kinds of resources to help her oldest son, Brian Gardner.
She said his behavior was always a problem she could not solve. He ended up behind bars. After he got out, she said he was selling drugs.
"He was trying to find his way," she said.
But he never got the chance.
On January 10, 2022, Muwakkil got a call from police. Brian had been shot and killed on Cleveland's East Side.
She and her daughter, Samantha Dunnigan, said they rushed to the scene at E 123rd St. and Phillips Ave, but police kept them from getting close to the tree where he crashed his car after being shot several times.
They then went into USA Foodmart, a nearby convenience store and asked if there was any surveillance video. She said the owner obliged.
Muwakkil said they watched the video. They said it showed two people, both dressed in black from head to toe, surround her son's Jeep and open fire.
"How do you come back from this?" Dunnigan asked. "It's not fair that at 22, my brother lost his life."
"It's not fair that at 26, I had to be a pallbearer for my brother and sit at a table with my mother and make decisions on how we were going to bury my brother," she said.
"He was an uncle. He was a nephew. He had a family that loved him," Muwakkil added.
Their grief, they said, has been amplified by the mystery of who killed him.
Gardner's homicide remains unsolved. As far as they know, the case has grown cold.
"I don't know the who," Muwakkil said. "All I know is he's not here."
