CLEVELAND — If a presidential election is like a chess match, with each move methodically planned, then the events of the last two weeks are as if somebody bumped into the board, sending the pieces flying.
The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, followed by the decision by President Joe Biden to withdraw from the race and the quick coalescing of Democratic delegates around Vice President Kamala Harris are all monumental events.
Still, will the ascension of Harris to the top of the ticket even move the needle in a state like Ohio, where Trump won twice by eight points?
"I think she has the potential to move the needle really depending on the enthusiasm gap that has existed because of the Biden candidacy and the concerns about his age and his ability," said News 5 Political Analyst Dr. Tom Sutton of Baldwin Wallace University. "I don't see this as a state that's going to go for Harris anymore than it would have gone for Biden with Trump being on the ballot. However, there is the possibility that we'll see an increase in voter turnout among constituencies that might otherwise have stayed home, younger voters, Black Americans, Latino Americans, who may see in her somebody that they really want to vote for as opposed to making a choice of two candidates that they weren't really crazy about be it Trump or Biden."
Where that could have an impact is in the down-ballot races like the one battle for the U.S. Senate between incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno. Democrats running statewide rely heavily on voters around the Democratic strongholds of Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo, Dayton and Youngstown to offset the strong Republican advantage in the rest of the state.
"I think it definitely helps in terms of enthusiasm in those counties among those demographics, younger voters, voters living in urban areas, women on the abortion issue where Kamala Harris has been a lead voice on the subject of abortion rights," said Sutton.
I think this gets back to how much will Kamala Harris be campaigning in Ohio, not so much to win the state for her own campaign but really to help support Sherrod Brown," he said.
But he also points out enthusiasm is already high among the state's Republican base energized even more now by the selection of Senator JD Vance as Donald Trump's running mate.
"So I think the net effect regardless of outcome is going to be we're going to see a much higher voter turnout I think in Ohio than we might otherwise have seen with Biden on the ticket," Sutton said.
