COLUMBUS, Ohio — Just a few seat losses in the bitter battle between Ohio House incumbents and candidates vying to kick them out of their jobs could make the state significantly more conservative, a News 5 analysis found. Despite being Republican-controlled now, the state could move much further right under a new speaker.
Millions of dollars have poured into Ohio’s GOP primary at the Statehouse.
"These attacks are, quite frankly, outrageous," state Rep. D.J. Swearingen (R-Huron) said.
This election is different than typical years because dozens of sitting representatives are facing brutal primaries — Swearingen is one of them.
"I know many of these members who are being accused of being RINOs (Republican in name only) or anti-gun or anti-Trump," he said. "Those are blatant falsehoods."
This all stems from political drama from January 2023 and how House Speaker Jason Stephens (R-Kitts Hill) came to power. The Republican caucus had previously chosen state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova) as their speaker months before the full House floor vote. Soon after, Merrin threatened backlash and "punishment" for the Republicans who voted for Stephens in the inside vote, according to Swearingen.
"The punishment doesn't go to us as members, the punishment goes to the people that we represent in our communities," he added. "It really takes their voice away."
Merrin has consistently said he never threatened anyone but did want the people who supported him to have better roles and offices.
Swearingen and 21 other Republicans (known "affectionately" by the other faction as the "Blue 22") and 32 Democrats voted for Stephens for speaker during the actual vote, while the majority of Republicans voted for Merrin. Stephens, still a conservative, is significantly more moderate than Merrin.
"We were well within our rights to for a man, an individual, who was going to represent our districts in the best interests of Ohio," Swearingen said.
Click here for an in-depth play-by-play and a history of why the Republicans refuse to get along on everything.
Ever since Stephens got the gavel, a faction of Republicans, led in part by state Rep. Ron Ferguson (R-Wintersville), has been fighting against the result.
RELATED: Ohio Republican infighting drama continues as lawsuit filed against House speaker
Ferguson is now supporting candidates to knock the sitting representatives out of their seats.
"They only have themselves to blame," Ferguson said. "Their districts deserve representatives that put the constituents in the state above personal power and gain."
The "Blue 22" betrayed the caucus, and thus the party, which shouldn't go unpunished, he added. The 22 Republicans were also censured by the Ohio Republican Party.
"This primary is an opportunity for us to restore order to the Ohio House of Representatives so that people can actually speak from the floor of the House, that we can have true meaningful debate on bills and that we have people operating in good faith," the lawmaker said.
Ferguson is typically restricted from speaking on the House floor, except for rare instances when Stephens has to acknowledge him.
A plot to defeat the speaker has happened before. Back in 2018, former Ohio House Speaker and now convicted felon Larry Householder needed to win the speakership in 2019 so he could sell out the Statehouse to FirstEnergy with a piece of corrupt legislation that came from a bribe.
He recruited candidates, some of whom were still at the Statehouse that he knew would support House Bill 6.
Analysis
Statehouse reporter Morgan Trau analyzed each of the GOP House primaries, leaving room for error.
Stephens needs just 50 votes to retain leadership.
Five of his original supporters are not running for reelection, either due to term limits or, in the case of former Rep. Bob Young, needing to resign due to multiple arrests and subsequently being found guilty of domestic violence. However, Stephens seemed to pick up five additional members during the year.
Of the people who are likely to support Stephens, 15 are facing challengers.
Stephens can afford to lose four seats this March and remain speaker.
There is also at least one candidate running for one of the five vacant spots who will seemingly support Stephens if elected.
RELATED: Ohio House Speaker supporting Larry Householder's attorney in legislative race
But March isn't the end. Numerous seats are newly competitive, and Democrats could realistically gain between one and four seats. Every new Democrat is likely to be a vote for Stephens. If Dems gain two seats, then Stephens can afford six losses in the primary.
At the end of the day, they are all Republicans — so why does it matter which one wins?
Well, the state could look vastly different if someone else was in charge.
The GOP infighting has already had an effect — we reported on how significant disagreements have stalled a state spending bill and put community projects in jeopardy:
RELATED: Ohio GOP infighting continues to stall progress on community projects
Without Stephens
"Do you think it would be a more conservative state if he wasn't speaker?" Trau asked Ferguson.
"I think that Ohio would not only be a more conservative state, it would just be a more productive state," the lawmaker responded.
The lawmakers passed the fewest amount of bills in 2023 than they have in decades, according to the nonpartisan Legislative Service Commission. Each side gives different reasons for this — either it's the lack of being actually "conservative," or it's because of external factors like major off-year elections, the 2024 primaries, both budgets and fighting with the Senate.
The House has passed conservative policies, such as taking away gender-affirming care from transgender minors and preventing trans kids from participating in athletics. They also allowed for the nearly 20 million special election on a policy to raise the threshold for a constitutional amendment to pass — this failed miserably, though. Along with this, plenty of tax cuts were in the budget they passed. They are debating a slew of gun laws that give more access to firearms.
The House has also not moved any equality-related bills that the Democrats introduce time and time again.
RELATED: Ohio House lawmakers come back to ban transgender care and then leave
"I think what people are tired of is politicians that try to put up smoke and mirrors and aren't really transparent," Ferguson said. "Be transparent, admit to people that this last year has been unsuccessful, that we haven't passed the meaningful things."
Gov. Mike DeWine cheekily told Trau in a one-on-one interview that it isn't always a bad thing when the lawmakers don't pass bills.
Going back to the speakership race:
Stephens supports public school funding, unions and following what the voters chose in the November election on abortion and marijuana. Stephens does support the voucher system to an extent, but wants to fully fund public education. He also does not want to overhaul the college education system and didn't think the August special election was a good idea. He is interested in lowering taxes but has not said anything about completely repealing the income tax, just that he supports a flat tax.
"I think that Ohio has shown that it's a blue-collar Republican state, it goes heavily for President Trump who has welcomed many individuals in the Republican Party that traditionally weren't voting for Republicans in the past," Swearingen said. "I think Speaker Stephens follows in that line where he realizes we have many blue-collar, working-class Republicans and he embraces those individuals."
Stephens has also been "magnanimous," to rivals, Swearingen continued, even though they have "badmouthed" and "lied on him."
Senate President Matt Huffman is expected to run for the job — and he differs from Stephens on each of those issues. He did help fund public schools, but he is more interested in legislation around the voucher system. Also, he would likely eliminate the income tax, which could double the sales tax. Huffman does want to change universities to prevent against so-called liberal bias and did support the August election from the beginning — even suggesting that the amendment to raise the threshold could be on a future ballot.
Ferguson may also throw his hat in the ring.
"A lot of people have encouraged me to do it," Ferguson said. "I don't really care who the speaker is so long as it's somebody that we can trust — I would support anybody that is not a censured 'Blue 22.'"
Moving forward
Swearingen says the drama and pettiness is "ridiculous."
He never thought that more than a year later, his colleagues couldn't get over that their choice didn't win.
"My hope was that the caucus would come together and I think we have come together on some very important issues the past year, which has been good," he said. "Unfortunately, I think some egos have gotten in the way — people didn't get what they thought they were going to get for their political ambitions and you're seeing the results of that."
Swearingen and Ferguson do not like each other — evident by their bickering on X, formerly known as Twitter, and also by them getting in each other's faces after a session in 2023.
There is no need to replace the incumbents since their team has gotten the job done for their constituents, Swearingen added.
"You can send the other guy there — he's not going to get the results that I'm gonna get you," Swearingen said.
Follow WEWS statehouse reporter Morgan Trau on Twitter and Facebook.
