The following article was originally published in the Ohio Capital Journal and published on News5Cleveland.com under a content-sharing agreement.
We’re still a long way away from 2030, but new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau suggest the next round of redistricting could boost the South’s influence in Congress. A Brennan Center analysis suggests if these trends hold, Southern states could be the primary beneficiary of population declines in California, New York and handful of other states.
In the Midwest, several states could see lose a Congressional seat or two, but Ohio appears likely to hold steady at 15 seats. While nearby states like Pennsylvania and Illinois saw their population decline, Ohio added more than 26,000 residents in 2023. Michigan added almost 4,000 residents, but given the broader population shifts around the country, they’re still projected to lose a seat in congress.
Who’s up, who’s down?
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates look at state populations between July 2022 and July 2023. The South accounts for nearly all of the regional increase. Those states saw an increase of more than 1.4 million residents, while the Midwest and the West grew by about 126,000 and 138,000 residents respectively. The Northeast, meanwhile, saw a decline of about 43,000.
Michael Li, senior counsel for the Brennan Center’s democracy program, says that’s not necessarily surprising.
“In some ways, this is not new,” he explained. “The South has been growing really since, the 1950s, 1960s, and likewise, the Northeast and the Midwest have been losing population relatively.”
But at narrowing the focus from regions to individual states, the estimates point to a handful of big swings.
“The South accounts for almost all of the country’s growth since the 2020 Census,” Li said, “And really, within the South, it’s four states, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina that account for around 90% of the US population gains since the 2020 Census.”
“Texas and Florida alone account for 70%,” he added.
The Brennan Center analysis indicates Texas could pick up four congressional seats and Florida could gain three.
Those gains could come at the expense of California and New York. In the most recent round of redistricting California lost a seat for the first time in its history; in 2030 it could lose four more. Brennan projects New York’s delegation to decline by three.
Still, Li was quick to caveat the findings. A lot can change between now and the 2030 Census. And pointing to New York, Li explained the outcome hinges in part on the effectiveness of a state’s census efforts.
“New York was expected to lose two seats this decade,” he said, “but it only ended up losing one because New York spent close to $100 million on census information and participation.”
The stakes
Li also cautioned against sweeping political assumptions based on the projections. For instance, he noted much of the migration Southern states have seen in recent years comes from people of color.
“Everybody thinks of Texas as a story about Latinos, which it certainly is, but you know, Texas also added more Black people last decade than any other state,” he explained.
Those demographic changes are to at least some extent scrambling the map in and around population centers. Suburban Texas used to be a Republican stronghold, Li described, but in recent years those areas have purpled.
“I think the movement of people to the South certainly has made southern politics in these big states more volatile and more competitive,” Li explained. “And it’s worried people, and I think one of the reasons that you see a lot of efforts at suppressing the vote or gerrymandering is precisely because people are trying to make sure they hold on to power.”
However these state-by-state, or even neighborhood-by-neighborhood, political contests shake out, Li says the current trends give the South greater heft on the national stage.
“The South is now much larger than the Northeast, it’s larger than the Midwest and it’s 40% of the population in the country,” he said. “I do think Southern politics, you know, whatever those are, whether they’re progressive or conservative, are going to be increasingly the politics of the country.”
In the Midwest, population growth in Columbus and Cincinnati help explain Ohio’s projected congressional delegation holding steady at 15. But around the region, several other states could see their representation decline.
To Li, midwestern states have opportunities for growth in coming years. The region’s relative affordability and the quality of higher education institutions are two notable points in its favor.
But the region faces challenges attracting people as well. In terms of employment, Li said the Midwest is still navigating the transition from heavy industry to new forms of manufacturing; meanwhile southern states have taken on a bigger role in businesses like auto manufacturing.
“I mean,” Li added, “you can’t do anything with the fact that you can play golf in Texas in February.”
