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Florida's economy could suffer from Trump’s mass deportation plan, experts say

If President-elect Trump delivers, the changes to the Florida workforce and economy could be wide-ranging, some have even suggested devastating.
President Donald Trump
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President-Elect Donald Trump’s mass deportation plan for undocumented immigrants could have wide-ranging impacts across the country, particularly in Florida. But— at the moment— the state’s new leaders said it’s not their problem.

While on the campaign trail, the former president regularly vowed to deliver mass deportation "on day one." At rallies, he often made the case by relating it to migrant crime.

"When I'm re-elected, we'll begin removing these criminals, these horrible people from our midst," President-elect Trump said at a recent MAGA rally in Wisconsin. "And we'll end up doing it immediately."

RELATED STORY | Scripps News/Ipsos poll: Support for mass deportations drops when Americans consider potential consequences

Jan. 20 is now fewer than two months away. If President-elect Trump delivers, the changes to the Florida workforce and economy could be wide-ranging, some have even suggested devastating.

Even so, Florida House Speaker Danny Perez (R) and Senate President Ben Albritton (R) sidestepped questions about the potential impacts, earlier this week.

“Any sort of immigration policy that comes from the federal government is for the federal government to decide," said the House Speaker. "That's a question that you should be asking the president.”

President Albritton said something similar, telling reporters Tuesday: “The federal government is the federal government. State government is state government. That's a federal issue."

When pressed further about the possible disruptions from mass deportation, Albritton doubled down.

“That's up to the federal government," said the Senate President. "We'll see what they do.”

RELATED STORY | Trump's mass deportation plan targets specific groups of immigrants

Exactly what they will do remains unclear. Trump has confirmed he’ll use the military. Texas has offered up land along the border for “deportation facilities.” Trump’s advisors have even said he’ll seek to again eliminate DACA, an Obama-era program that protects undocumented who arrived as children.

Florida Democrats, like Rep. Marie Woodson (D-Pembroke Pines) a Haitian migrant herself — have warned for months what these mass deportations could mean for Florida. Her concern is a rise in bigotry and racial profiling.

“For those who are afraid, I’ll tell you this— be afraid of Trump because he has proven to you who he is," said Woodson. “Okay, mass deportation. In mass deportation, you don't know who's going to be in that ‘mass.’ But we know for sure he doesn't want the people who came from the Biden program. Our brothers and sisters in Ohio. He doesn't want them here. He doesn't want the TPS recipient. He doesn't want Haitians in general.”

There’s a major economic concern too. The latest data from the American Immigration Council show Florida has one of the highest populations of undocumented in the country, about 1.1 million. They’re about seven percent of the workforce here — with jobs in ag, hospitality, and construction, contributing about $2 billion to state and local taxes alone.

The Brookings Institution recently suggested mass deportation could also lead to a decrease in work for citizens. Researchers found for every half million deported, U.S.-born employment dropped by about 44,000.

“Occupations common among unauthorized workers, such as construction laborers and cooks, are essential to keep businesses operating,” the report said, in part. "Deporting workers in these jobs affects U.S.-born workers too."

Florida’s governor and lawmakers have multiple state immigration laws already on the books, with strict work verification rules for employers. They have said they’re more focused on making the labor market inhospitable rather than mass deportation.

"We're protecting Floridians with the full extent of our powers to do that," DeSantis said in May of last year, before signing an immigration reform bill. "But it's sad. It's sad to see what's happened. It's sad to see these images of the lawlessness."

A new era may be on the horizon, however. For now, Florida’s lawmaking leaders seem content with waiting to see what happens next before going further.

This story was originally published by Forrest Saunders at Scripps News Tampa.