During the final season of the College Football Playoff's four-team format, the empires will strike back.
Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma have made more CFP appearances than any other schools through the nine years of the postseason system, but only two combined in the past two seasons. The Crimson Tide, Tigers, Buckeyes and Sooners are no longer the safe bets to win their conferences like they were through a good chunk of the last decade.
No. 1 Georgia has bullied its way past fourth-ranked 'Bama to the top of the Southeastern Conference and the sport.
In the Atlantic Coast Conference, No. 9 Clemson has gone two seasons without making the playoff and now faces a legitimate threat in No. 8 Florida State.
No. 2 Michigan has displaced No. 3 Ohio Stat e atop the Big Ten.
No. 20 Oklahoma is coming off its worst season in more than two decades, slipping into the crowded pack of Big 12 hopefuls after being a clear favorite for years.
In this last season before the playoff expands from four to 12 teams, Georgia is an overwhelming favorite to win a third straight national title, according FanDuel Sportsbook and AP Top 25 voters.
To predict a national championship for anyone other than the Bulldogs, who have both the best roster and an accommodating schedule, feels like just trying to be different. That said, no team has ever won three straight national championships and still with only four teams making the CFP, the margin for error in the regular season (including conference title games) is thin.
This column has always taken the position that it's more fun to be different than right. And besides, how often do you get the chance to take Alabama and have it be a bold choice?
And is it, really?
Reminder: The Crimson Tide has not gone more than two seasons without a national title since Nick Saban took over in 2007.
OVER/UNDERACHIEVERS
Three teams that start the season ranked but will finish unranked:
— No. 14 Utah. The Utes start the season with uncertainty at quarterback as Cam Rising recovers from knee surgery with his backup also ailing. Not an ideal way to head into a September schedule that features Florida, Baylor, UCLA and Oregon State.
— No. 16 Kansas State. In 2021, Baylor beat Oklahoma State in a thrilling Big 12 title game between two surprising participants. Both started 2022 ranked. Neither finished that way. Can TCU and K-State avoid similar regression after being last season's surprising success stories? Pencil the Wildcats in for a big step back.
— No. 21 North Carolina. QB Drake Maye won't be able to cover the Tar Heels' deficiencies as well as he did last season.
Three teams that start the season unranked but will finish ranked:
— UCLA. Five-star freshman quarterback Dante Moore behind a good offensive line in a Chip Kelly offense: Promising.
— Kentucky. If the Wildcats' rebuilt offensive line can protect North Carolina State transfer Devin Leary, this could be the second-best team in the SEC East.
— Boise State. The Broncos have a brutal early schedule (at No. 10 Washington, UCF, at San Diego State, at Memphis), which presents both a challenge and opportunity to assert themselves as the best team outside the Power Five.
