Actions

Drought has worsened significantly across NEO over the last week alone

Drought has worsened significantly across Northeast Ohio over the last week alone. When can we expect decent rain chances?

By: Katie McGraw

Posted

Drought has been a topic of discussion for most of this summer, and while it started to improve for portions of NEO over August, it deteriorated quickly over the last week.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a map released every Thursday (with data from Tuesday to Tuesday). It tracks drought across the U.S. Using five classifications: Abnormally dry (D0), which shows areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought: Moderate (D1), severe (D2), extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4).

The weekly update to the United States Drought Monitor was issued on Thursday morning, and there have been significant changes across our viewing area and region over just the last week.

Compare the map released for the week of Aug. 27 compared to this week (Sept. 3) below. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of Ohio had a one-category deterioration (for example, no drought to abnormally dry or moderate drought to severe drought, etc).

LAST WEEK:

THIS WEEK:

The worst of the ongoing drought is in southeastern Ohio, such as in Tuscarawas and Carroll Counties - both of which are now experiencing extreme drought, with a small area experiencing exceptional drought. Lake County, much of Ashtabula, Geauga and Summit counties are the only communities experiencing some level of drought.

Cleveland, Akron-Canton, and Mansfield all have a deficiency in precipitation for all of 2024, with Cleveland and Mansfield being over 6 inches below average.

While Akron-Canton is technically below average, following a very wet August, the deficiency is only half an inch, and much of Summit County is not experiencing drought conditions at this time.

However, this is notably the exception, not the rule, across our viewing area and the entire state. On Aug. 27, 25.30% of the Buckeye State was not in any drought. That has dropped to 4.57% as of Sept. 5, which means 95.43% of Ohio is in drought, including 61.90% in moderate drought, 31.49% in severe drought, 22.21% in extreme drought, and 7.35% in exceptional drought.

We need good soaking rains to help combat drought. Unfortunately, drought typically breeds more drought and can lead to a vicious cycle.

We do have a chance for storms over the next two days as an area of low pressure and a cold front to our northwest. This will bring the return of showers and storms by Friday afternoon and evening, with a few more showers into Saturday, especially early and in our eastern communities. Most data suggests rainfall totals will range from 0.20 inches to 0.75 inches, with isolated communities receiving over 1 inch.

This looks like another event with a wide range of rainfall amounts. The highest amounts are favored east of I-71. Following these storms for Friday and Saturday, there are no rain chances for several days. It looks dry starting this Sunday and going through next week. It could be next weekend (September 14 and 15) before there is another shot for rain.

The Climate Prediction Center agrees with this and has a notable signal for below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures over the next two weeks.

Drought conditions typically cause warmer-than-normal temperatures, which promotes ridging (or high pressure aloft), which limits the potential for rain and worsens drought. I would expect the drought to continue to worsen well into September.