A Lake Effect snow warning has been issued; how much snow to expect

A Lake-effect Snow Warning has been issued for Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga and Ashtabula counties through 7 a.m. on Wednesday.

By: Katie McGraw

ALERTS:

A Lake-effect Snow Warning has been issued for Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga and Ashtabula counties through 7 a.m. on Wednesday. The warning is already in effect for Lake and Ashtabula counties. It will be in effect for 48 hours. Geauga County is also under a Lake Effect Snow Warning, but it does not go into effect until 7 p.m. on Monday. Cuyahoga County's Winter Weather Advisory was upgraded to a lake-effect snow warning early Monday. The warning goes into effect at 9 p.m. on Monday through early Wednesday. These areas will see the highest snow totals.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for Lorain, Portage, Summit and Trumbull counties from 1 a.m. Tuesday through 7 a.m. Tuesday. One to five inches of snow will be possible there.

UPDATE: Cuyahoga County has been upgraded to a lake effect snow warning. It goes into effect 9 pm tonight. Lake effect snow warnings go into effect at 7 am today thru 7 am Wed for Lake and Ashtabula Counties and Geauga County's warning goes into effect 7 pm today thru 7 am Wed. pic.twitter.com/25Z7kzITNv
— Katie McGraw (@KatieMcGrawx) November 27, 2023

SUMMARY: A low-pressure system moved over the region this weekend. It brought the return of rain on Sunday. As a cold front moved through, it caused our temperatures to fall. The front also changed the wind direction to become westerly. trough will linger through early toward us on Sunday and bring the return of rain to the area. This system will also drag a cold front across the region by Sunday night and into Monday. This will drop our temperatures into the 30s and cause the rain to change to snow overnight. The lake effect snow machine gets turned on Monday and Tuesday, causing accumulating snow for parts of the area, especially in the snowbelt.

TIMING: Lake effect snow is expected across Northeast Ohio's primary snowbelt for Monday and Tuesday. A rain/snow mix may initially last longer along the immediate lakeshore early on Monday, but eventually, all precip will be snow throughout Monday. A few inches of accumulation (1-4 inches) is possible during the day on Monday (particularly in Lake and Ashtabula counties), but the lake effect storm should intensify Monday night and Tuesday.

Westerly winds will gust over 35 mph so it will be windy and frigid with temps in the 20s and even colder wind chills in the teens to single digits by Monday night. The wind could cause blowing and drifting snow. Thundersnow will also be possible due to sufficient instability. By Tuesday morning, the main band of lake effect snow should pull farther inland as winds become more northwesterly. This will bring a burst of snow farther inland on Tuesday morning.

There could be periods with heavy snow/snow rates of around 1-2 inches per hour. Travel will be difficult on Monday evening and into Tuesday morning. Snow should gradually fade by Wednesday. Scroll through the images of Futurecast to get an idea about timing and coverage.

POTENTIAL TOTALS: Forecasting for lake effect snow is a tricky business, so we continue to make updates and changes as needed to the graphics below. Full disclosure, I have been gradually upping our snowfall totals since Saturday morning.

Heavy lake effect snow is expected across the primary snowbelt around Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga and Ashtabula counties. There will be a large range of snowfall totals and impacts across our area and sometimes within mere miles of each other.

The highest totals are expected in far eastern Cuyahoga, southern Lake, northern Geauga, and Ashtabula counties—where 6 to 10 inches will be possible with higher amounts near a foot or more in Lake and Ashtabula Counties. The heaviest snow is expected in Northwest PA, where over a foot of snow is even more likely.

For Cleveland and eastern Cuyahoga County, 3 to 7 inches looks likely. Two to five inches are expected across western Cuyahoga County, southern Geauga, and Portage counties including communities like Parma, Solon, Twinsburg, Hudson, Parkman, and Mantua. Communities around Elyria, Lorain, Oberlin, Medina, Stow, and Akron - I am forecasting around 1-3 inches for you through Tuesday. The southern half of our viewing area will likely see less than an inch of snow.

This does not look like it will be the worst snow we have ever seen, but we need to get our snow legs back! Especially with so many folks traveling on Sunday and returning to work this week. Remember, this forecast and article will be updated as needed, so check back. Stay safe!