Well, it's about that time! We are eight days out from the Total Solar Eclipse on April 8.
Much of Northeast Ohio is in the path of totality. We will be a hot spot for visitors to see this once-in-a-lifetime experience. However, the weather, of course, is going to play a pivotal role in the experience. If it is overcast, wet, or foggy, there will be nothing to see. It will get darker during the eclipse, but we will not be able to see the sun, ruining the show.
The best-case scenario will be cloud-free, but we know that can be tough in April in northern Ohio. Let's discuss what we know and don't know about the forecast over the next eight days.
DISCLAIMER: Before we get into the early look at the forecast, I have to put out this disclaimer. As many of you know, meteorology is not a perfect science. I wish it were, but it is also what makes forecasting a fun challenge with the goal of accurately predicting the ever-changing conditions across Northeast Ohio, our region, the country and the whole world.
Technology has come a long way, but there are limitations. As of Easter morning, there are a few numerical weather prediction models that can predict farther into the future. Some of those computer models are the American GFS, the Euro and the Canadian. As we get closer to Eclipse Day, more computer models and more data/information will come into play, such as the NAM and the HRRR.
When we are able to check more data, the clearer the picture gets and the confidence in the forecast increases. Computer models are designed to calculate what the atmosphere will do at certain points over a large area, from the Earth's surface to the top of the atmosphere. Computer models also rely heavily on weather balloons. Weather balloons are launched around the globe twice daily, and the computer models use that information to create forecasts. Meteorologists often will say things like, "This system is too far away," "The next system is over the Pacific Ocean," and "Once it gets over land, we will get a clearer picture of this system." That is because once a system gets over America (typically along the West Coast), we can send up weather balloons and use those current observations of the storm for our weather models, and the accuracy of the forecast should increase.
All of this mumbo jumbo is to say that the closer we get to Eclipse day, the more accurate the forecast will become, and our confidence in the forecast will increase as well.
WHAT WE KNOW: The next week is looking very active. Plan for rounds of rain Sunday night, Monday morning, Monday night and into Tuesday. Flooding will be possible with 1 to 2 inches of rain for many and severe storms cannot be ruled out. Then a wintry mix and perhaps even some snow looks likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture could linger as long as Friday or even early Saturday! Next weekend, April 6-7, is looking much drier after this active week and pattern. I actually think the active week bodes well for us on Eclipse Day! As of Sunday morning, it is looking mainly dry for Eclipse Day (yay). However, remember this is subject to change. One potential complication is the next system moving in from the west the week of April 8. The timing of that system will dictate if we stay dry but also dictate when clouds increase ahead of the system. Even if we are dry, all we need are clouds to ruin the show.
I am cautiously optimistic about the forecast for Eclipse Day. All I ask is that you remember the disclaimer above. This is an early look at the forecast for April 8th, and changes to the forecast are very possible. The Power of 5 Weather Team will update the Eclipse Day forecast as much as needed. We plan to post multiple daily updates regarding the forecast to keep you in the loop. Fingers crossed for sunshine!
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