Warm and moist air will continue to move into Northeast Ohio overnight into the morning on Wednesday. We will see scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm on Wednesday morning.
This round will begin late tonight and into the first half of the morning on Wednesday. Severe weather is not anticipated with this first round. We will see more storms move in through the afternoon ahead of the main cold front.
The threat of storms becoming severe will increase during the afternoon into the evening. A few factors may limit how early the storms become severe: cloud cover and morning precipitation. More of each will delay the threat of severe storms until later.
If we see any sunshine or the morning rain is rather lackluster, that will increase the likelihood of seeing severe storms during the afternoon on Wednesday. The threats of severe storms will be damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes. That will be the first round of potential severe weather.
Our next round will be with the cold front during the late evening Wednesday into the overnight. This will bring more widespread chances of seeing damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat once again.
Models are conflicted on the amount of severe storm potential we could see Wednesday afternoon. The Hi-Res Rapid Refresh or HRRR is more aggressive now, while the North American Model 3 KM or NAM3 is more conservative with severe storms during the afternoon. Both models have suggested the threat of severe storms with the cold front moving through the region.
So, all in all, still some uncertainty in the threat of severe weather across Northeast Ohio for Wednesday.
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