Shortly before 2:30 Thursday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center reported Air Force hurricane hunters found Hurricane Helene had strengthened to a dangerous and major category 3 hurricane with max sustained winds of 120 mph.
It is moving north-northeast at 16 mph. It is expected to strengthen even more before making landfall tonight.
The current track has the storm making landfall along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend region south of Tallahassee. This storm will likely be catastrophic to the area, with a deadly storm surge of as high as 20 feet, along with damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds and flooding also expected.
To give you a perspective of what a 20-foot storm surge means, my old boss and Chief Meteorologist Marc Weinberg at WDRB News in Louisville tweeted a video yesterday of the damage left behind from Hurricane Michael that brought a 19-foot storm surge to Mexico Beach, FL.
For reference, this is what a 19 foot storm surge looked like when I chased Hurricane Michael. This was Mexico Beach, FL.
— Marc Weinberg (@MarcWeinbergWX) September 25, 2024
You can see why the word “unsurvivable” is being used to describe the potential surge from #Helene. pic.twitter.com/DrAr2aK1Mi
Following landfall, Hurricane Helene will continue to move north over Georgia and toward the Tennessee River Valley. It will likely still be a tropical storm over Atlanta before weakening to a remnant low pressure that will merge with a separate system. While it will be much weaker, we can already see some impacts from this tropical system with more clouds. It will also bring more rain and wind on Friday and into the weekend.
Friday will start dry and cloudy, but by the late morning to early afternoon, widespread rain will move into our southern communities and continue to spread north. By Friday evening, much of NEO will be wet for a few hours. Keep this in mind for any plans you have on Friday evening.
Hurricanes are strong low-pressure systems that turn counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere. As the remnant low-pressure churns to our SW this weekend, it will keep on-and-off showers in the forecast for a few days.
Rainfall amounts do not look overly high for NEO —plan for 0.25 - 1.00 inches of rain from Friday into Sunday. So we will certainly receive some impacts from this system —but nothing in comparison to the Gulf of Mexico.
Below are a few images of Futurecast to give you an idea about the timing and coverage of the rain over the next day.
At the same time, winds will also be increasing during Friday afternoon and into the evening. Gusts of 30-40+ mph will be possible for a brief period Friday night and early Saturday. Winds will back off through the day on Saturday. I will be sure to keep you posted on any updates or changes to the forecast over the next several days.
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