The Remnants of Hurricane Nicole will bring tropical moisture to Northeast Ohio

Cleveland forecast from the Power of 5 weather team

By: Katie McGraw

It will be quiet for the ONE more day with mild temperatures near 70 degrees on Thursday! Try to get outside and enjoy the mild air. It will get significantly more active by Veterans Day with heavy rain, falling temperatures and a significant pattern flip.

SET UP:
Two separate systems will be affecting the area by the end of the week. The first will be coming up from the south as the remnants of Hurricane Nicole move northward and increase tropical moisture in our region. The second will be a strong cold front moving in from the west. I have arrows pointed at both areas of interest on the graphic below. Both systems will bring an increased threat for widespread rain, but the cold front will also usher in significantly colder temperatures.

IN NEED OF RAIN:
According to the US Drought Monitor summary, dry weather has been mounting during the month of October and early November and has caused an intensifying drought. 88.3% of Ohio is dealing with abnormally dry conditions and 66.8% is dealing with moderate drought. With breezy winds and minimal moisture on the ground over the last few weeks, there has been an increased fire danger this week and even reports of wildfires across northeast Ohio. Wildfires are not common in our state; we are in need of some rain and we are going to get it on Friday. However, it may be too much too fast.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:
The remnants of Nicole will bring a lot of moisture northward and we should expect moderate to heavy rainfall on Friday. The Weather Prediction Center has placed nearly all of our viewing area in a risk for excessive rainfall on Friday. This means there is an increased threat for flash floods.

The highest rainfall will be in our eastern communities and decrease as you move to the north and west. As a general rule, many of us should expect around 1-3 inches of rainfall on Friday. 2 - 3+ inches of rain will be more likely the farther east you live. Check out the graphic to get an idea regarding rainfall totals. We are in need of rain, but this will be a LOT of rain in a few hours. Be sure to clear the drains near your house of any leaves. Flooding will be possible tomorrow. Drive carefully! Visibility will be lower and ponding on the road is expected.

COLD BLAST:
Once the cold front slides through the region, temperatures will fall from the 70s to the 50s to the 40s and maybe even the 30s from Thursday to Sunday. The cold front will also shift our winds to become northwesterly, coupled with a relatively mild Lake Erie, the stage will be set for Lake Effect rain and snow showers. As of Thursday afternoon, any snowfall totals look to be fairly minor, but we will continue to monitor any changes and keep you posted over the next few days.

COLD FOR EVERYONE! This is a really wild 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Predication Center. Nearly the entire US is expecting below average temperatures for at least the next week and likely well beyond, too! pic.twitter.com/X3Usq6iqmB
— Katie McGraw (@KatieMcGrawx) November 10, 2022

TIMING:
Thursday will be the last mild day for some time, with highs around 70 degrees. The digits will drop on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 50s. By Sunday, highs may not crack 40 degrees! Clouds will increase by Thursday night with rain increasing overnight from the south. By mid-morning on Friday, much of the area looks to be soggy with periods of heavy rain. Widespread rain looks to continue until the late afternoon and will SLOWLY shut off from west to east by the end of Friday. Rain finally pulls away for everyone by Friday night (around midnight or so). Rain will linger the longest in our eastern communities Friday evening. A few more showers and Lake Effect rain/snow showers will linger into the weekend. Scroll through the images of Futurecast to get an idea about timing and coverage.

I will be updating this article over the next day. Be sure to check back for the latest information! - Katie McGraw: Facebook & Twitter